Moscow’s Oil Helped India Save $12.6 Billion in 39 Months — But the Real Gains Could Be Much Higher
India’s heavy reliance on imported oil has always left its economy vulnerable to the volatility of global crude markets. Over the last three years, however, one source has provided a unique cushion against rising costs—Russian oil. An analysis of official trade data shows that between April 2022 and June 2025, Indian refiners saved at least $12.6 billion by importing discounted crude from Russia. But while the number itself looks significant, experts argue that the real financial benefit for India may be much higher, since Russian oil also helped keep global crude prices in check.
The issue has now emerged as a key point of tension between Washington and New Delhi. The Donald Trump administration has escalated pressure on India by imposing additional tariffs, linking them directly to India’s continued imports of Russian crude. Despite this, India remains firm in its position, citing both strategic autonomy and economic necessity as reasons to keep Russian barrels flowing.
India’s Oil Savings: A Measured Reality
The Indian Express’s analysis compared the landed price of Russian oil with the average price of crude imported from other suppliers. The findings underline how India’s refiners benefitted from the discounts Moscow offered after much of the West shunned Russian oil following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
- In 2022-23, India’s oil import bill stood at $162.21 billion. Without Russian discounts, it would have been around $167.08 billion—$4.87 billion higher. The average landed price of Russian oil was $83.24 per barrel, around $13 cheaper than the non-Russian average.
- In 2023-24, discounts narrowed to $8.89 per barrel, but India’s increased import volumes meant total savings rose to $5.41 billion. Russia supplied nearly 609 million barrels, making up more than a third of India’s total crude imports.
- In 2024-25, discounts shrank to just $2.3 per barrel, bringing savings down to $1.45 billion.
- In the first quarter of 2025-26, discounts widened slightly again to $4.63 per barrel, adding another $0.84 billion in savings.
Overall, this produced a direct savings figure of $12.6 billion in 39 months. But experts stress that the real benefit is not reflected fully in trade data. By stepping in as a major buyer of Russian crude, India helped prevent a larger spike in global crude prices, effectively cushioning not only its own economy but also the global market.
The Presumptive Savings Factor
India imports around 88 percent of its oil needs. This high dependency means even a small increase in global crude prices has a dramatic impact on its trade deficit and inflation. Industry estimates suggest that for every $1 rise in crude prices, India’s annual import bill jumps by about $1.8 billion.
Between 2022 and mid-2025, if global crude prices had been $10 higher per barrel on average, India would have paid nearly $58 billion extra on its oil imports. If prices had risen $20 higher, the additional burden would have touched $116 billion.
Brokerage CLSA has warned that if India stopped buying Russian crude today, global oil prices could climb back to $90–100 per barrel from the current levels of around $65. That would not only raise India’s import bill by billions but also fuel inflation worldwide. In this sense, India’s decision to keep importing Russian oil has worked as a stabilizing force for global energy markets, creating savings well beyond the directly measured $12.6 billion.
US Pressure and India’s Defiance
Washington’s view of India’s Russian oil imports has changed significantly over time. When Russia first invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the Joe Biden administration quietly encouraged India to buy Russian crude. The idea was straightforward: if Moscow’s oil disappeared from global markets due to lack of buyers, international crude prices could spiral out of control. By ensuring a steady flow of Russian barrels into the market, India and other buyers like China helped prevent a major oil shock.
Fast forward to the Trump presidency, and the tone has shifted sharply. Trump has accused India of “bankrolling Russia” and announced punitive tariffs to force New Delhi’s hand. In early August 2025, his administration slapped an additional 25 percent tariff on Indian goods exports to the US—on top of the 25 percent already in place. These tariffs are expected to hit small and medium exporters the hardest, particularly since India’s goods exports to the US were worth nearly $87 billion in 2024-25.
What has raised eyebrows is that Washington has not imposed similar tariffs on China, despite Beijing being the single largest buyer of Russian oil. The move has therefore been seen in New Delhi as discriminatory and politically motivated.
India has dismissed the Trump administration’s tariffs as “unjustified and unreasonable.” Officials argue that the country simply turned to Russian oil when its traditional suppliers diverted barrels to Europe. India also points out that its refiners buy oil based on economic viability, and since Russian crude is not under UN sanctions, these imports remain legitimate under international law.
Strategic Autonomy and the Russia Factor
India’s refusal to bow to US pressure reflects its long-standing policy of maintaining strategic autonomy in foreign affairs. Russia has been a trusted partner for India for decades, not only in the energy sector but also in defense and nuclear cooperation. New Delhi is unwilling to compromise these ties, especially when its own economic interests are at stake.
For policymakers in India, the trade-off is clear. On one hand, higher tariffs from the US hurt small and medium exporters. On the other, discounted Russian oil provides relief to refiners, helps control inflation, and indirectly benefits hundreds of millions of consumers by keeping fuel prices manageable. Cutting off Russian oil could destabilize India’s energy security, drive up costs, and hurt economic growth.
Experts underline that while Washington sees oil as leverage to pressure Moscow over Ukraine, New Delhi views it as a lifeline to secure its domestic economy. These diverging perspectives explain why India shows no signs of reducing Russian oil imports despite escalating American pressure.
The Erosion of Discounts
One important factor shaping the debate is that the actual discount on Russian crude has narrowed significantly over time. In 2022, the gap between Russian and non-Russian barrels was around 13.6 percent. By 2024-25, this had fallen to just 2.8 percent.
This shrinkage is due to several reasons. First, global oil prices have trended lower, reducing the difference between Moscow’s discounted crude and international benchmarks. Second, Western sanctions have raised shipping and insurance costs for Russian oil, inflating its landed price in India. For refiners, the “landed price”—which includes these additional expenses—is what really matters.
While the discount erosion has made Russian crude less attractive than it once was, refiners continue to import it as long as it remains slightly cheaper. The bigger factor, however, is the broader stabilizing impact of India’s purchases on global prices, which translates into far greater presumptive savings.
Looking Ahead: Economics or Politics?
The debate around Russian oil imports has now shifted from purely economics to politics. On paper, India’s refiners may no longer be saving billions in direct discounts. But on a strategic level, the continued flow of Russian crude is central to keeping global oil prices in check, thereby safeguarding India’s economic stability.
Nomura economists estimate that India’s oil bill could rise by up to $11 billion annually if discounted Russian barrels disappeared and global crude spiked. Such a shock would ripple through inflation, foreign exchange reserves, the rupee’s value, and the trade deficit. For a fast-growing but import-dependent economy like India, the risks are too high to ignore.
As the Trump administration intensifies pressure, India has doubled down on its stance of choosing trade partners based on its own interests. With no sanctions legally barring Russian crude and with clear evidence of the benefits, New Delhi remains firm that it will “buy oil from wherever it gets the best deal.”
Final Word — India’s Balancing Act
India’s experience with Russian oil over the past three years highlights the complex interplay of economics, energy security, and geopolitics. On one side lies Washington’s push to isolate Moscow; on the other lies New Delhi’s imperative to secure affordable energy for nearly 1.4 billion people.
The $12.6 billion figure of savings is only part of the story. The real value lies in the billions more that India avoided spending by helping keep global oil prices under control. As the geopolitical contest intensifies, India’s strategy reflects its broader ambition—preserve autonomy, protect its economy, and balance global relationships without being dictated to by any single power.
Would you like me to also add a data table/graph section (like import bills, discounts, savings per year) in the blog for more credibility and reader engagement?Here’s a 1,000+ word news-style blog crafted from the text you provided, keeping the same words, tone, and flow but structured with clear sections and expanded explanations to reach full blog length.
Moscow’s Oil Helped India Save $12.6 Billion in 39 Months — But the Real Gains Could Be Much Higher
India’s heavy reliance on imported oil has always left its economy vulnerable to the volatility of global crude markets. Over the last three years, however, one source has provided a unique cushion against rising costs—Russian oil. An analysis of official trade data shows that between April 2022 and June 2025, Indian refiners saved at least $12.6 billion by importing discounted crude from Russia. But while the number itself looks significant, experts argue that the real financial benefit for India may be much higher, since Russian oil also helped keep global crude prices in check.
The issue has now emerged as a key point of tension between Washington and New Delhi. The Donald Trump administration has escalated pressure on India by imposing additional tariffs, linking them directly to India’s continued imports of Russian crude. Despite this, India remains firm in its position, citing both strategic autonomy and economic necessity as reasons to keep Russian barrels flowing.
India’s Oil Savings: A Measured Reality
The Indian Express’s analysis compared the landed price of Russian oil with the average price of crude imported from other suppliers. The findings underline how India’s refiners benefitted from the discounts Moscow offered after much of the West shunned Russian oil following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
- In 2022-23, India’s oil import bill stood at $162.21 billion. Without Russian discounts, it would have been around $167.08 billion—$4.87 billion higher. The average landed price of Russian oil was $83.24 per barrel, around $13 cheaper than the non-Russian average.
- In 2023-24, discounts narrowed to $8.89 per barrel, but India’s increased import volumes meant total savings rose to $5.41 billion. Russia supplied nearly 609 million barrels, making up more than a third of India’s total crude imports.
- In 2024-25, discounts shrank to just $2.3 per barrel, bringing savings down to $1.45 billion.
- In the first quarter of 2025-26, discounts widened slightly again to $4.63 per barrel, adding another $0.84 billion in savings.
Overall, this produced a direct savings figure of $12.6 billion in 39 months. But experts stress that the real benefit is not reflected fully in trade data. By stepping in as a major buyer of Russian crude, India helped prevent a larger spike in global crude prices, effectively cushioning not only its own economy but also the global market.
The Presumptive Savings Factor
India imports around 88 percent of its oil needs. This high dependency means even a small increase in global crude prices has a dramatic impact on its trade deficit and inflation. Industry estimates suggest that for every $1 rise in crude prices, India’s annual import bill jumps by about $1.8 billion.
Between 2022 and mid-2025, if global crude prices had been $10 higher per barrel on average, India would have paid nearly $58 billion extra on its oil imports. If prices had risen $20 higher, the additional burden would have touched $116 billion.
Brokerage CLSA has warned that if India stopped buying Russian crude today, global oil prices could climb back to $90–100 per barrel from the current levels of around $65. That would not only raise India’s import bill by billions but also fuel inflation worldwide. In this sense, India’s decision to keep importing Russian oil has worked as a stabilizing force for global energy markets, creating savings well beyond the directly measured $12.6 billion.
US Pressure and India’s Defiance
Washington’s view of India’s Russian oil imports has changed significantly over time. When Russia first invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the Joe Biden administration quietly encouraged India to buy Russian crude. The idea was straightforward: if Moscow’s oil disappeared from global markets due to lack of buyers, international crude prices could spiral out of control. By ensuring a steady flow of Russian barrels into the market, India and other buyers like China helped prevent a major oil shock.
Fast forward to the Trump presidency, and the tone has shifted sharply. Trump has accused India of “bankrolling Russia” and announced punitive tariffs to force New Delhi’s hand. In early August 2025, his administration slapped an additional 25 percent tariff on Indian goods exports to the US—on top of the 25 percent already in place. These tariffs are expected to hit small and medium exporters the hardest, particularly since India’s goods exports to the US were worth nearly $87 billion in 2024-25.
What has raised eyebrows is that Washington has not imposed similar tariffs on China, despite Beijing being the single largest buyer of Russian oil. The move has therefore been seen in New Delhi as discriminatory and politically motivated.
India has dismissed the Trump administration’s tariffs as “unjustified and unreasonable.” Officials argue that the country simply turned to Russian oil when its traditional suppliers diverted barrels to Europe. India also points out that its refiners buy oil based on economic viability, and since Russian crude is not under UN sanctions, these imports remain legitimate under international law.
Strategic Autonomy and the Russia Factor
India’s refusal to bow to US pressure reflects its long-standing policy of maintaining strategic autonomy in foreign affairs. Russia has been a trusted partner for India for decades, not only in the energy sector but also in defense and nuclear cooperation. New Delhi is unwilling to compromise these ties, especially when its own economic interests are at stake.
For policymakers in India, the trade-off is clear. On one hand, higher tariffs from the US hurt small and medium exporters. On the other, discounted Russian oil provides relief to refiners, helps control inflation, and indirectly benefits hundreds of millions of consumers by keeping fuel prices manageable. Cutting off Russian oil could destabilize India’s energy security, drive up costs, and hurt economic growth.
Experts underline that while Washington sees oil as leverage to pressure Moscow over Ukraine, New Delhi views it as a lifeline to secure its domestic economy. These diverging perspectives explain why India shows no signs of reducing Russian oil imports despite escalating American pressure.
The Erosion of Discounts
One important factor shaping the debate is that the actual discount on Russian crude has narrowed significantly over time. In 2022, the gap between Russian and non-Russian barrels was around 13.6 percent. By 2024-25, this had fallen to just 2.8 percent.
This shrinkage is due to several reasons. First, global oil prices have trended lower, reducing the difference between Moscow’s discounted crude and international benchmarks. Second, Western sanctions have raised shipping and insurance costs for Russian oil, inflating its landed price in India. For refiners, the “landed price”—which includes these additional expenses—is what really matters.
While the discount erosion has made Russian crude less attractive than it once was, refiners continue to import it as long as it remains slightly cheaper. The bigger factor, however, is the broader stabilizing impact of India’s purchases on global prices, which translates into far greater presumptive savings.
Economics or Politics?
The debate around Russian oil imports has now shifted from purely economics to politics. On paper, India’s refiners may no longer be saving billions in direct discounts. But on a strategic level, the continued flow of Russian crude is central to keeping global oil prices in check, thereby safeguarding India’s economic stability.
Nomura economists estimate that India’s oil bill could rise by up to $11 billion annually if discounted Russian barrels disappeared and global crude spiked. Such a shock would ripple through inflation, foreign exchange reserves, the rupee’s value, and the trade deficit. For a fast-growing but import-dependent economy like India, the risks are too high to ignore.
As the Trump administration intensifies pressure, India has doubled down on its stance of choosing trade partners based on its own interests. With no sanctions legally barring Russian crude and with clear evidence of the benefits, New Delhi remains firm that it will “buy oil from wherever it gets the best deal.”
Final Word — India’s Balancing Act
India’s experience with Russian oil over the past three years highlights the complex interplay of economics, energy security, and geopolitics. On one side lies Washington’s push to isolate Moscow; on the other lies New Delhi’s imperative to secure affordable energy for nearly 1.4 billion people.
The $12.6 billion figure of savings is only part of the story. The real value lies in the billions more that India avoided spending by helping keep global oil prices under control. As the geopolitical contest intensifies, India’s strategy reflects its broader ambition—preserve autonomy, protect its economy, and balance global relationships without being dictated to by any single power.
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