Trump Orders Nuclear Testing Restart: China Will Match US in 5 Years
In a dramatic announcement that has reverberated across the global security landscape, US President Donald Trump has directed the Pentagon to immediately resume nuclear weapons testing for the first time since 1992, ending a three-decade moratorium that had become a cornerstone of international arms control efforts.
The declaration came via Truth Social on October 29, 2025, just minutes before Trump’s high-stakes meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, marking the first face-to-face encounter between the two leaders since 2019.
The Rationale: China Will Catch Up Within Five Years
Trump justified the decision by pointing to what he characterized as an accelerating nuclear arms race, particularly with China. “The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country,” Trump stated, crediting his first term with accomplishing “a complete update and renovation of existing weapons”.
However, his most striking claim focused on China’s rapidly expanding arsenal: “Russia is second, and China is a distant third, but will be even within 5 years”. This projection aligns with current intelligence assessments showing China’s unprecedented nuclear buildup.
Trump acknowledged the gravity of his decision, stating, “Because of the tremendous destructive power, I HATED to do it, but had no choice”. He explicitly linked the order to “other countries’ testing programs,” directing the Department of War (formerly Defense) to “start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis”.
China’s Nuclear Surge: The Numbers Behind the Concern
Trump’s five-year warning reflects documented trends in China’s nuclear expansion that have alarmed Western defense establishments. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China’s nuclear arsenal has grown dramatically from approximately 500 warheads in January 2024 to over 600 by January 2025—a 20% increase in a single year.
This represents the fastest rate of nuclear expansion by any nation globally, with China adding approximately 100 new warheads annually since 2023. The Pentagon’s 2024 report on Chinese military power estimates that Beijing will surpass 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030, and SIPRI projects China could reach 1,500 warheads by 2035.
To support this expansion, China has constructed approximately 350 new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos across six locations—three in northern desert regions and three in mountainous areas of central China. Defense analysts suggest that depending on how China structures its forces, it could match the ICBM counts of either Russia or the United States by the end of the decade.
Despite this rapid growth, China’s arsenal remains substantially smaller than those of the United States and Russia. As of 2025, the US maintains approximately 3,708 warheads in its stockpile (with 1,770 deployed), while Russia possesses around 5,459 warheads. Even if China reaches 1,500 warheads by 2035, this would represent only about one-third of current US and Russian totals.
Russia’s Recent Nuclear Provocations
Trump’s announcement came against a backdrop of recent Russian nuclear weapons demonstrations that appear to have influenced his decision. Just days before Trump’s declaration, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced successful tests of two nuclear “superweapons” that Russia claims are unique in the world.
On October 21, 2025, Russia tested the Burevestnik cruise missile, a nuclear-powered weapon that Moscow claims has virtually unlimited range and can evade all missile defense systems. According to Russia’s Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov, the missile flew for 15 hours, covering 14,000 kilometers (8,700 miles), though he noted this was “not the maximum range”.
Two days later, on October 29, Putin revealed Russia had successfully tested the Poseidon nuclear-powered underwater drone—an autonomous torpedo designed to create massive radioactive tsunamis capable of devastating coastal areas and rendering them uninhabitable. Putin claimed the weapon is unmatched globally in terms of “speed and depth of movement” and that “there is nothing like this in the world”.
These Russian tests, conducted just before Trump’s meeting with Xi, appear to have been a catalyst for the US president’s decision to resume American nuclear testing.
Historical Context: The 1992 Moratorium
The United States conducted its last nuclear test—codenamed “Divider”—on September 23, 1992, at the Nevada Test Site. That same year, President George H.W. Bush announced a moratorium on underground nuclear testing, ending an era in which the US had conducted 1,054 nuclear tests since the beginning of the nuclear age.
This voluntary moratorium was based on a national security assessment that the United States did not need to conduct nuclear explosive tests to ensure the safety, security, and effectiveness of its nuclear deterrent. Instead, the US developed the Stockpile Stewardship Program, comprising sophisticated modeling, simulation, and subcritical nuclear experiments that allow certification of the arsenal without full-scale detonations.
The moratorium contributed to global norm-building against nuclear testing. Since 1996, when the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) was opened for signature, nuclear testing has become increasingly taboo. The last major nuclear powers to conduct tests were China (1996) and Russia (1990), while only North Korea has conducted nuclear test explosions in this century, with its most recent test in 2017.
The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in Jeopardy
Trump’s announcement threatens to undermine the CTBT, which bans “any nuclear weapon test explosion or any other nuclear explosion” anywhere in the world. Although the treaty was opened for signature in 1996 and has been signed by 187 nations and ratified by 178, it has never formally entered into force because it requires ratification by 44 specific nations with nuclear technology capabilities.
Nine of these key nations have not ratified the CTBT: China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Israel, Iran, Egypt, Russia, and the United States. While Russia initially ratified the treaty in 2000, it withdrew its ratification in 2023 to “mirror” the United States’ non-ratification, though as a signatory it technically remains obligated not to violate the treaty’s objectives.
The United States signed the CTBT in 1996, but the Senate rejected ratification in 1999. Since then, successive administrations have maintained the 1992 testing moratorium while declining to pursue ratification. Trump’s announcement represents the first explicit break from this policy consensus.
Arms control experts warn that if the US resumes testing, it could trigger a cascade effect, prompting China, Russia, and potentially other nuclear powers to accelerate their own testing programs, effectively ending the global norm against nuclear testing that has held for nearly three decades.
Unclear Specifics: What Kind of Testing?
A significant ambiguity in Trump’s announcement is precisely what type of nuclear testing he intends to resume. The president did not specify whether he means full-scale nuclear-explosive testing—which would involve actual detonation of nuclear warheads—or flight testing of nuclear-capable missiles, which the US already conducts routinely.
Nuclear-explosive testing would be managed by the National Nuclear Security Administration and would require substantial preparation and infrastructure development at test sites like the Nevada Test Site. Such tests are used to confirm the performance of new nuclear weapon designs and assess the functionality of older warheads.
In contrast, the US military regularly tests delivery systems—missiles capable of carrying nuclear payloads—without detonating actual warheads. This type of testing has continued throughout the moratorium and does not violate the spirit of the CTBT.
Trump did not respond to reporters’ questions about these specifics during his meeting with Xi in Busan. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One later, Trump said he believed it was “appropriate” for the US to resume testing to keep pace with other nuclear powers, but he did not elaborate on the technical details or announce specific test sites.
The Atlantic characterized Trump’s announcement as potentially “trapped in a Cold War mindset,” suggesting the president may be instinctively reacting to Russian provocations rather than following a coherent strategic rationale. Some nuclear policy experts argue that resuming testing would actually project weakness rather than strength, as it would signal that the US doubts the reliability of its own arsenal despite decades of successful stewardship without detonations.
Strategic Timing: Minutes Before Meeting Xi
The timing of Trump’s announcement—posted to Truth Social while aboard Marine One en route to meet President Xi—was widely interpreted as a deliberate signal to both China and Russia. The declaration shifted the focus of the Trump-Xi summit from trade negotiations to nuclear security concerns.
During their meeting, Xi told Trump that while the two countries “do not always see eye to eye,” they should strive to be “partners and friends” and “jointly shoulder our responsibility as major countries”. Trump responded by saying he expected to have a “fantastic relationship” with Xi “for a long period of time”.
The nuclear testing announcement may have been intended as leverage in trade negotiations, demonstrating Trump’s willingness to escalate tensions dramatically if China does not make concessions on issues like rare earth exports, fentanyl precursors, and soybean purchases. However, it also carries the risk of triggering an accelerated arms race that could destabilize the already fragile security architecture in the Asia-Pacific region.
International Reactions and Future Implications
While immediate international reactions were still emerging at the time of the announcement, arms control advocates have long warned that any resumption of US nuclear testing would likely prompt similar actions by other nuclear powers, potentially ending the de facto global testing moratorium that has held since 1998.
China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun, responding to earlier SIPRI reports on China’s nuclear expansion, stated that “China has consistently adhered to a nuclear strategy centered on self-defense, maintaining its nuclear arsenal at the minimum level necessary for national security”. China maintains a declared policy of no-first-use of nuclear weapons.
The practical implementation of Trump’s order remains uncertain. Nuclear testing requires extensive preparation, including infrastructure development, safety protocols, and coordination across multiple government agencies. Unless Trump intends merely symbolic detonations, resuming a full testing program would take considerable time and resources.
Brandon Williams, the Trump-appointed leader of the National Nuclear Security Administration, had previously informed lawmakers in April 2025 that he would recommend against resuming nuclear weapons testing. It remains unclear whether this recommendation has changed or how the administration plans to navigate internal resistance to the policy shift.
The New Nuclear Era
Trump’s announcement marks a potential inflection point in global nuclear policy. For over three decades, the major nuclear powers maintained an unwritten compact: continue modernizing arsenals while refraining from actual test detonations. This arrangement allowed them to maintain deterrence while supporting broader non-proliferation norms.
By threatening to break this compact, Trump has raised the specter of a new nuclear arms race characterized not just by quantitative expansion—which China is already pursuing—but by qualitative improvements enabled through resumed testing. Whether this represents a calculated strategic shift or an impulsive reaction to Russian provocations remains to be seen.
What is clear is that the announcement has injected profound uncertainty into the global nuclear order at a moment when tensions among the major powers are already elevated. The coming months will reveal whether Trump follows through on his stated intention to resume testing “immediately,” or whether the declaration proves to be negotiating leverage that ultimately preserves the testing moratorium that has served international security for over three decades.
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